The results of the polls in this presidential election are now very clear: it’s all going to come down to the Swing States. And the trend is in Donald Trump’s favor in most of them.

The American presidential election on November 5, 2024, is likely to be one of the most uncertain since Al Gore vs George W. Bush. The polls are extremely close: nationwide voting intentions give a slight advantage to the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, but given the voting system, that doesn’t mean much. It’s important to understand that the election is won by winning the “electoral votes”, at least 270 to reach the White House. And they are won by winning the vote in each state.

The 2024 presidency of the United States is to unfold in the most undecided states.

Donald Trump has a slight advantage in these so-called “swing states”, making him the candidate with the strongest momentum. The trend emerging in the money time is an upward consolidation of pro-Trump voting intentions in three of them. However, poll results in the other swing states are almost all within the margin of error, and the models are not robust enough to provide any certainty. The latest surveys indicate that undecided voters are leaning more towards Kamala Harris, but observers also know that the models tend to underestimate the Trump vote.

Kamala Harris had a clear advantage in September, which has melted away since the second half of October, according to the latest poll results.

Latest poll results state by state

Since the American election is being played out on a state-by-state basis, it is the polls identified on this scale that are relevant for gaining an insight into the likely outcome of this American presidential election.

Polls vary easily from one day to the next. Here’s what the polls are showing in each state at this stage, with the map from the reference site “270 to win”, which gives Democratic and Republican vote projections, updated daily :

The United States is a very politically divided country, with states that traditionally vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, such as California or Maryland; and others that traditionally vote for Republicans, such as Montana or the Midwestern states.

Results in the Swing States

In a dozen states, the balance of power is more nuanced, with voters able to tilt their territory in favor of either candidate. These “swing states” are therefore the most targeted by presidential candidates, since whoever wins the election in the major states generally wins the election. For the time being, in the 7 most important, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck, with an ever-increasing advantage for the Republican.

The results of the polls in each state make it possible to identify the states where each candidate is certain to win, and to consider that the outcome of the election will be decided in the following 7 states: Pennsylvania, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Michigan (10 electoral votes), North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes). If Kamala Harris manages to secure 44 electors, she will be elected president. Donald Trump needs 51 electors from these 7 states to win this presidential election.

A final poll in favor of Kamala Harris…

While the latest New York Times poll is relatively encouraging for Kamala Harris, it also reflects a trend that is beginning to last: the gap between the two contenders remains extremely close at national level. According to this latest poll, dated November 1, the Democratic candidate leads in voting intentions with 49%, ahead of the former US President (48%). This gap has been stabilizing for over a week now, in the final stretch of the campaign. You must go back to October 22 to find evidence of a two-point gap between the two candidates, and even as far back as October 14 to observe a three-percentage-point lead for Kamala Harris (50% vs. 47% at the time).

Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris leads by more than one percentage point, either nationally or in the swing states, except for Georgia, where Trump seems to have widened his lead enough to no longer be a concern. Nevertheless, “our polling averages show that Trump has been winning in recent weeks. He has narrowed the gap nationally and currently has a very slim advantage in states with 270 electoral votes,” says the New York Times. Enough to win the election? Impossible to say.